Tag Archives: Chance

Evolution: What are the Chances?

One should expect that common sense alone would convince a scientist to reject the notion of evolution; however, empirical evidence is necessary for concrete falsification. Through logical reasoning of cause and effect in accordance with mathematical probability calculations, one may determine the zero percent chance of any occurrence of evolution.

The French expert on probability, Emile Borel, developed the “single law of chance” (Ankerberg & Weldon, 1998: 183). Any process or entity having a probability of existence lower than 1 chance in 1050 is said to never occur. This denominator is incredibly large, but for the benefit of evolutionary theory, it will be used as an example to logically falsify the possibility of any evolutionary process. David J. Rodabaugh, Ph.D., Associate Professor of Mathematics at the University of Missouri, explained that “the probability that a simple living organism could be produced by mutations ‘is so small as to constitute a scientific impossibility’—the chance that it could have happened ‘anywhere in the universe…is less than 1 [chance] in 102,999,942’” (Ankerberg & Weldon, 1998: 182). This probability is 102,999,892 smaller than the “single law of chance” and therefore, must be treated as strictly impossible. For a slight comprehension as to the magnitude of this small possibility, Ankerberg and Weldon write, “A picosecond is one-trillionth of a second. In 15 billion years, there are 1030 picoseconds” (Ankerberg & Weldon, 1998: 185). The age of the earth proposed by evolutionary theory is only 5 billion years. Surely, an evolutionary event with a probability less than 1 in 1050 is proof enough of the irrationality of evolutionary theory.

Evolutionary theory misinterprets mathematical principles. If there is a one in a million chance of an amino acid forming from a rich broth of organic chemicals in one year, and these chemicals were present for 1 million years, there is no greater possibility of that amino acid forming in the first year than there is in the millionth year. The probability of forming that acid in one particular year is completely independent of the number of years that have passed, during which it had not formed. The product of chance and time does not equal creation. The chance of one reaction occurring is not catalyzed by a vast span of time. “Natural operations proceed in a direction of greatest probability”—toward greatest disorder (Williams, 1981: 19).

Ankerberg, John; Weldon, John. Darwin’s Leap of Faith. Eugene, Oregon: Harvest House Publishers, 1998.

Williams, Emmett L. Thermodynamics and the Development of Order. Kansas City, MO: Creation Research Society Books, 1981.


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